Back to tools
Value Bet Calculator: Find Profitable Bets
Identify undervalued odds and calculate the optimal Kelly stake
What is a Value Bet?
A Value Bet exists when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true odds of the event. In other words, the bookmaker underestimates the actual probability of the outcome, creating a long-term profit opportunity.
- Bookmaker odds: The decimal odds offered (e.g. 2.50)
- Estimated probability: Your estimate of the true probability (%)
- Kelly criterion: Determines the optimal fraction of your bankroll to wager
Formula: Value = (Probability x Odds) - 1 | If Value > 0, it's a Value Bet
How This Tool Works
A value bet occurs when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the outcome. The Value Bet Calculator helps you identify these profitable opportunities by comparing the bookmaker's implied probability with your estimated probability. When value is positive, you have a long-term edge.
How to Use
- 1Enter the decimal odds offered by the bookmaker
- 2Enter your estimated probability of the outcome (in %)
- 3The calculator shows whether value exists and the optimal Kelly Criterion stake
- 4A positive value percentage means the bet is profitable long-term
Pro Tips
- Use statistical models or expert analysis to estimate true probabilities
- Value betting is a long-term strategy — individual bets can still lose
- Bookmakers like Pinnacle and Cloudbet rarely limit winning accounts
- Track your value bets in a spreadsheet to verify your edge over time